Nearmap analysis reveals where bushfire risk hits hardest
Sep 2026
As El Niño brings elevated bushfire risk across parts of Australia, new analysis shows property-level intelligence can help insurers identify where risk is concentrated.
Sep 2026
)
SYDNEY, Australia — September 9, 2026 — As Australia enters a bushfire season marked by an active El Niño, new Nearmap analysis of the January 2026 Victorian bushfires has found that properties identified as most vulnerable were 3.6 times more likely to be destroyed or badly damaged than those rated least vulnerable.
Among homes located near the fire front, 6.6% of properties rated in the most vulnerable group were destroyed or badly damaged, compared with 1.8% of those rated least vulnerable. The findings highlight a critical distinction for insurers: broad hazard assessments can identify where wildfire risk is elevated, but they do not necessarily show which individual properties within an exposed area are most vulnerable.
The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed Australia is in an El Niño phase, which typically brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia during winter and spring. AFAC’s Spring 2026 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook has also identified heightened fire risk across parts of New South Wales, Queensland, Tasmania, Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and the Northern Territory.
“El Niño tells insurers where to look, but property intelligence helps show them which properties to look at,” said Andy Watt, Chief Executive Officer at Nearmap. “The challenge isn’t simply understanding that a postcode or corridor is exposed to bushfire. It’s understanding how that risk varies from one property to the next. When insurers can see property condition, vegetation and defensible space at scale, they can move from a broad view of hazard to a much more precise understanding of the properties carrying the greatest risk.”
The January 2026 Victorian bushfires provided an opportunity to examine this distinction at property level. Nearmap captured most of the affected area before the fires and again after the events, creating a consistent before-and-after view of individual properties.
The analysis examined 36,012 buildings located within 500 meters of a building classified as destroyed or badly damaged, including 2,980 buildings classified as destroyed or badly damaged. Among properties with usable pre-event imagery, Nearmap compared its Bushfire Vulnerability Score with post-event outcomes, finding a pronounced concentration of losses among the most vulnerable properties.
The analysis also found a consistent relationship between defensible space and outcomes. Among homes that survived, properties located within 100 meters of a destroyed building had more cleared ground across every zone assessed.
For insurers, this property-level view can support decisions across the insurance lifecycle, from risk selection and renewal to prevention, catastrophe response and claims. Within hazard-flagged corridors, insurers can identify the properties carrying the greatest exposure rather than treating every property in an area as having the same level of risk. Property condition, roof characteristics, vegetation and defensible space can also provide additional evidence for loss-control programs and prevention efforts.
“The forecast and hazard outlook are important signals, but they are not the whole picture,” said Watt. “The insurers that can see their properties clearly before an event, and assess what has changed when an event occurs, are better positioned to make informed decisions across underwriting, prevention and claims. Property intelligence gives insurers that visibility at the level where risk actually exists; the property.”
During an event, recent pre-event imagery establishes a baseline for what existed before the fire. Post-event imagery can then help determine what changed, allowing insurers to move more quickly from understanding where a fire travelled to understanding which individual properties were affected.
About Nearmap
Nearmap is a global property intelligence company redefining how organizations understand and act on the built environment. By owning the entire intelligence value chain—from high-recency geospatial capture powered by patented camera technology to accurate AI-derived analytics and guaranteed building materials data—Nearmap delivers a single, trusted source of truth for property decisions. Insurers, government agencies, and AECO organizations rely on Nearmap to transform property uncertainty into evidence, helping organizations move beyond fragmented data and manual processes with verified, frequently updated insight. These proprietary insights enable faster, more confident decisions across underwriting and claims, assessment and response, and planning and construction so teams can see truth, assess risk, and act with certainty. Founded in Australia in 2007, Nearmap stands as the definitive source of truth that shapes the livable world.
Media Contact
Taylor Cenicola
Taylor.cenicola@nearmap.com